If there is one thing it pays to be aware of before venturing upon a career as a gambler it is this - that, all else being equal, the bookmaker always wins.
That is not to say that the occasional gambler will never get lucky. Those lucky few people who scoop a jackpot on the lottery will never be anything other than in pocket as a result of their good fortune. And by the same token, the occasional punter who triumphs with a 100/1 shot on the Grand National may similarly be forever a beneficiary of Lady Luck's benevolence.
But for the regular bettor the house edge, which in essence is the proportion of the "correct" price withheld by the bookie as commission, will ensure that sooner or later he or she will be down on the deal.
That is why the challenge for the successful punter is not to guess well in order to outwit the bookie. One can guess well on a particular race or other sporting event, but one will never guess well perpetually in a way that will keep one forever ahead of the bookmaker. It just doesn't work out like that.
To beat the bookie one needs, in a nutshell, to reverse the artificial advantage that the bookie enjoys. To put it simply one needs to create a situation in which, over a period of time, the total amount won is greater than the total amount lost. One needs to reverse the house edge.
Contrary to popular wisdom, it can actually be done.
The first tool in the armoury of the successful bettor will be some source of odds comparison information. When a particular book is offering a significantly more generous price on a particular line than its competitors then, assuming it is not in possession of specialist knowledge that allows it to take a dare (an assumption we cannot always make), it will by offering the inflated price have reduced or cancelled out its own house edge.
Where the price on offer is so generous as to actually reverse the house edge, the punter has what is known as a value bet. That is not to say that it will necessarily be a winning bet, but the gambler who takes only value bets at all times will in the long run make a profit, in exactly the same way as the sportsbook ordinarily assures itself of an eventual profit by means of the house edge.
There is an even more certain way through which the punter can be assured of a profit than by means of the value bet, and that is through what is known as sure bets.
A sure bet, also known as an arbitrage (or "arb"), is where the bettor actually backs all eventualities in the certain knowledge that one will be triumphant. By backing each eventuality with different books at prices that ensure that, whatever the outcome, the return will be greater than the sum total of all the stakes, a small guaranteed profit is the result.
No comments:
Post a Comment